[SMM comment] Shanghai Aluminum and Shanghai lead rose more than 1%, thread hot coil rose more than 2%, gold and silver fell slightly

SMM6 March 10: most of the outer disk metals were red yesterday. According to data, China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on Wednesday that in May 2021, national industrial producer prices rose 9.0% year-on-year, 1.6% month-on-month; industrial producer purchase prices rose 12.5% year-on-year, 1.9% month-on-month. From January to May, the average ex-factory price of industrial producers rose 4.4% over the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers rose 5.9%. Today, the LME metal market is all green. As of 09:30 in the morning, Lun Copper and Lun Al fell nearly 0.2%, Lun lead fell slightly, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.1%, Lunni fell nearly 0.4%, and Lunxi was flat. Domestically, international copper fell nearly 0.2%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.1%, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai lead rose nearly 1%, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.4%, and Shanghai nickel and tin rose nearly 0.2%.

On the copper side, on the macro side, the Bank of Canada said to maintain stable interest rates and weekly bond purchase targets, and stressed the continued quantitative easing. There were few US economic data overnight, and non-farm and economic data released last week continued to disrupt market sentiment. The strong inflation data added to investors' concerns about the Fed's early tightening of ultra-loose policy, and copper futures were volatile amid market caution. Pay attention to the United States, which will be announced today.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper performance fluctuated overnight. Follow the CPI data of the United States today.

Lead, yesterday, Shanghai lead rose eye-catching, wearing the EMA group, overnight continued high concussion, still running above the EMA group, long-short trading cautious, 15500 yuan / ton line slightly pressure. Overall, after a restorative rise, lead prices returned to the previous operating platform of 15000-15550 yuan / ton, but the current social inventory of lead ingots is 118500 tons, which is the highest since April 2015. in the follow-up, we still need to be vigilant of the risks brought by high inventory. It is expected that the average price of SMM1# lead today.

[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead received a small increase overnight, recycled lead profit repair discount micro-expansion

Zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a long shadow column, the upper 10 / 20 moving average to form a suppression, the lower 5-day moving average to provide support. The sharp rise in PPI data in May in China has triggered market concerns about falling prices. With the marginal loosening of mines and the gradual recovery of smelters, the risk of weakening zinc fundamentals has increased, and short-term vigilance against the risk of high decline.

[summary of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] supply-side disturbance gradually weakens zinc fundamental support is limited

In terms of nickel, the overnight Shanghai Nickel main contract 2107 contract opened at 132990 yuan / ton yesterday. Affected by domestic CPI data yesterday, bulls were more confident than expected to significantly increase nickel prices. The night trading was dominated by long positions, and Shanghai Nickel fell slightly. In the first half of the night session, the center of gravity quickly returned to the daily average of 132600 yuan / ton, and then the center of gravity quickly returned to the daily average position of 132600 yuan / ton, fluctuating in a narrow range to close at 132420 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous trading day, the settlement price increased by 540 yuan / ton, or 0.41%. From the day K, we can see that the center of gravity of Shanghai Nickel shock this week has gradually moved upward, many moving averages are arranged below, near the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and the short-term operation of funds is frequent. It is expected that Shanghai Nickel will still have a wide range of shocks today.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] CPI growth rate is lower than expected, nickel center of gravity has shifted upwards, intermediate products are in short supply, nickel sulfate is in short supply.

In terms of black, thread and hot coil rose nearly 2.2%, coking coal and coke rose nearly 0.8%, iron ore rose nearly 0.1%, and stainless steel rose nearly 1.2%. In terms of coke, the Shandong coke spot market ran smoothly yesterday. On the supply side, at present, most coking enterprises in Shandong maintain normal production, individual coke enterprises are limited, coke sales are good and inventory remains low, and the policy of fixing coke by steel and coal is not clear in Shandong area. the overall supply of coke has not changed significantly for the time being. On the demand side, there is no news of steel mills lifting or lowering for the time being, coke short-term arrival is stable, most of the stocks in steel mills remain in the middle, and the willingness to purchase and replenish the stock is reduced, mainly on demand.

[summary of SMM Steel Morning meeting] the PPI data in May grew by 9.0% year on year, exceeding expectations and bringing up commodities again at the NDRC forum.

Crude oil fell nearly 1.1% in the previous period, and international oil prices held steady on Wednesday after US inventory data showed a sharp increase in gasoline inventories due to weak fuel demand after the long Memorial Day weekend. Traditionally, this period marks the beginning of the summer driving season. Us crude oil inventories plunged 5.2 million barrels in the week to June 4, the 11th consecutive week of decline, as refineries increased production as the economy recovered after the novel coronavirus epidemic and more consumption was expected in the summer, the (EIA) said on Wednesday.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.3%, Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.1%, and international gold prices fell in a narrow range on Wednesday, as investors waited for inflation data from the United States, which could affect the direction of the Fed's monetary policy. Traders will be watching Thursday's US Consumer Price Index ((CPI)) report for any sign that the Fed may start to withdraw from ultra-loose monetary policy. Market participants are also waiting for the ECB to meet on the same day.

As of 09:20, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

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